TY - GEN
T1 - Forecast demand in a pharmaceutical trading company using ABC classification, Holt Winters method and ERP for an efficient business model
AU - Trujillo Palacio, Lyssetess
AU - Raymundo Palomino, Anai
AU - Perez Paredes, Maribel
AU - Torres Sifuentes, Carlos
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. All rights reserved.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Pharmaceutical product trading companies generally face difficulties with inventory management due to inaccurate demand forecasts. This is the case with the company under study, which lacks an adequate demand forecasting method, as evidenced by its mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 25.65%, indicating the need to improve its demand forecasting method. Given this issue, a methodological design is proposed that integrates ABC classification, aimed at segmenting products according to their economic impact, the Holt Winters forecasting method for better accuracy of demand fluctuations based on seasonality and trend; and in combination with the ERP system for integration and automation, obtaining optimal forecasts and reducing operational time. The application of the proposed design resulted in a significant reduction of MAPE to 2.60% using the Holt Winters forecasting method and in combination with the ERP system to 1.495%. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the application of the proposed design.
AB - Pharmaceutical product trading companies generally face difficulties with inventory management due to inaccurate demand forecasts. This is the case with the company under study, which lacks an adequate demand forecasting method, as evidenced by its mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 25.65%, indicating the need to improve its demand forecasting method. Given this issue, a methodological design is proposed that integrates ABC classification, aimed at segmenting products according to their economic impact, the Holt Winters forecasting method for better accuracy of demand fluctuations based on seasonality and trend; and in combination with the ERP system for integration and automation, obtaining optimal forecasts and reducing operational time. The application of the proposed design resulted in a significant reduction of MAPE to 2.60% using the Holt Winters forecasting method and in combination with the ERP system to 1.495%. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the application of the proposed design.
KW - ABC Classification
KW - Demand Forecasting
KW - ERP System
KW - Holt Winters
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85203836236
U2 - 10.18687/LACCEI2024.1.1.1755
DO - 10.18687/LACCEI2024.1.1.1755
M3 - Contribución a la conferencia
AN - SCOPUS:85203836236
T3 - Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
BT - Proceedings of the 22nd LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
PB - Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions
T2 - 22nd LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education and Technology, LACCEI 2024
Y2 - 17 July 2024 through 19 July 2024
ER -