Influence of the el nino phenomenon on shoreline evolution. Case study: Callao bay, Peru

Analyzing the long-term behavior of the coastlines in the vicinity of river mouths and estuaries usually relies on the mean (predicted) values of the sediment discharge from the river. However, this approach does not consider low frequency, severe events, such as El Nino (EN), that can have a large effect on coastlines. While the effects of an EN on flooding and droughts are well studied, little information exists about its effects on coastal zones, and especially on the evolution of coastlines. In early 2017, an EN occurred in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the country of Peru was affected with high precipitation levels, and extreme river discharges and flooding. During this event, in the district of Lima, the Rimac River discharged a huge amount of sediment into the Callao Bay, and the shoreline accreted approximately 1 km, demonstrating the significant effects that an EN can have on coastal zones. To explore these effects, this paper studies the influence of an EN on shoreline evolution in the Callao Bay by analyzing Landsat images from 1985-2019 to understand the shoreline evolution and identify changes to the coastline. Results show that when an extraordinary EN occurs (e.g., 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2017), the shoreline experiences high accretion compared to when a smaller, or no EN occurs. During these events, a significant delta forms at the south end of the bay, and the redistribution of the accumulated sediment by wave action causes the accretion of the adjacent coastlines for as far as 7 km north of the river mouth. This shows the importance of these events for the wellbeing of coastlines adjacent to river mouths affected by EN.